Latest numbers reveal that 6.1% of UK adults are already taking GLP-1 medications, while a further 15.1% are considering them. Under Lumina’s base forecast, more than one in 10 UK adults could be taking GLP-1 medications by 2031, rising to almost 16% under an accelerated adoption scenario. 

Despite widespread assumptions that GLP-1 users simply spend less on food and drink, the research paints a more nuanced picture.

Almost 40% of current GLP-1 users report increasing overall food & drink spend, compared with 31% who say it has decreased. More than half have increased spending on premium and higher-quality food, suggesting many consumers are trading up on quality while consuming less volume. 

Lumina Intelligence identifies three key behavioural shifts:

  • Drinks are increasingly being dropped from meal occasions, creating a direct threat to spend per head.
  • Dinner and snacking occasions are declining, as consumers reduce treat-led and convenience-driven eating.
  • Health-focused choices are gaining importance, with high-protein, fresh and balanced meals outperforming lower-calorie messaging. 

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The findings also reveal clear winners and losers within drinks categories. Beer, cola and coffee are losing share among current GLP-1 users, while low-and-no alcohol drinks, water, tea and milk-based beverages are gaining ground. A trend towards ‘sip not gulp’.

Morgan Griffiths, commercial lead at Lumina Intelligence, said: “The conversation around GLP-1 has largely focused on what consumers might stop buying. Our research shows the real opportunity lies in understanding what they still want and increasingly value.

“GLP-1 users are not abandoning hospitality. As a more affluent user group, typically they are becoming more intentional in how they spend. They’re prioritising quality over quantity, selecting premium options, looking for protein-rich and nutrient-dense choices, and increasingly choosing experiences and social occasions that feel worthwhile.

“The challenge for operators is that traditional routes to driving spend, particularly drinks attached to meals, are under pressure. The businesses that succeed will be those that adapt menus, portion sizes and drinks ranges to meet changing consumer needs without compromising value.

“GLP-1 adoption is no longer a future trend. More people in the UK are already taking GLP-1 medication than are vegetarian or vegan combined. Hospitality businesses that start adapting now will be best placed to benefit as this consumer group continues to grow.”